Tuesday, November 24, 2009

If I were a betting man . . .

"You can throw out the records" in this one. But only if you want to lose your shirt.


Jon Solomon of the Birmingham News goes into those very records to explore the old underdog/favorite debate in the Iron Bowl and other big rivalry games.

His findings: When there's a gap as big as this year's in the season records of the two teams, the favorite has won more than 90 percent of the time.

If I were a betting man, those odds would bring me significant comfort. Since I'm not, I'm still scared to death.

Michael Gordon


4 comments:

J said...

MG, your false humility is downright nausiating.

Rather than history, hatred, or lightning-in-a-bottle-1972 theatrics, let's talk Xs and Os. Do you really think our feeble corps of linebackers will be able to do anything with Julio, assuming McElroy can hit short passes over the middle? (I'll grant you, some days that's a big if.) Do you think our kick coverage units, which have proven to have trouble with really fast guys, are suddenly going to figure it out when Arenas gets any of the dozen punts he's likely to field? And he's going to get so many chances because no matter how much time Gus has to prepare, he's still not going to have the resources he needs to block Cody. We're going to have a ton of 3-and-outs. The way we rack up the rushing yards we do is that Tate averages about 3 yards a carry for 3 quarters, then starts popping off 20-yard runs in the fourth when the defense gets tired. But by the time the fourth quarter gets here, we're going to be far enough behind, and have run few enough plays, that we won't be able to count on a tired defense.

I'm hoping that the pure emotion of playing the arch-rival at home will carry us far enough that we lose by less than 10 points.

OK, your turn. Give me some HARD eveidence why you should be so worried.

Bigdawg said...

MG, the Tigers might beat the point spread. They won't beat the Tide. You can get a good night sleep on Thanksgiving and go ahead and plan your victory party on Friday night. Even the Dawgs beat AU this year. It wasn't the Iron Bowl, but it's still a big rivalry, and we beat 'em for the 4th year in a row (no offense J).

J said...

Offense accepted, Bigdawg. ;-) UGA is probably our #2 rivalry, so losing 4 straight is almost as nausiating as Gordon's false humility.

BTW, I'm picking the Dawgs in the upset special of the year this week.

Michael said...

J, BD: Too often, Xs and Os had nothing to do with who won the game.

Punt Bama Punt, Wrong Way Bo, the 1982 game in which Alabama outgained Auburn 2 to 1 and still lost. The 1986 game, same thing. The Ed Scissum fumble. The 2002 game that Francione gave away.

In other words, weird things happen. This one reminds me of 1979 when undefeated top-ranked Bama was very lucky to beat Joe Cribbs, William Andrews and James Brooks.

Alabama should win this one. But no one in their right mind would take it for granted, given the cosmic tumblers that have fallen perfectly into place for the Auburn family. Hated rival, two weeks to prepare, nothing to lose.

Like I said, I'm scared to death.
J, I hope we beat you senseless. But I just don't think it's going to happen.

Happy Thanksgiving, y'all.

mg